This week, much talk in the industry surrounded a study from the Pew Internet Project which suggested that 38% of users can't tell the difference between paid and organic search results. That is big enough. The research also suggested that nearly 2/3 of Internet users felt they could walk away from search completely and their life wouldn't be seriously impacted!

What?  No search?  But... But...

In an era in which search is widely credited with being the catalyst for the turnaround in the Online Advertising business, and in which money is still being poured into developing the next big search application, these results were counter-intuitive at best. If true, the implication of these results could heavily impact the long term allocation of online marketing dollars, and the development of Internet site's themselves.

In an attempt to put these numbers in context, avant|marketer connected with Deborah Fallows, Senior Research Fellow at the Pew Internet Project and author of the study:




avant|marketer: Your data seems to suggest that there is a certain inertia to brand selection in the search field; that once someone picks a brand, they are unlikely to do a ton of switching. Does that mean there might not be a “next Google”? Are developers wasting their time?

Deborah Fallows: Yes, I think many searchers stick to one or two engines out of habit, although some others have interpreted this behavior as being [a measure] of loyalty.  There will always be new search engines appearing, although they may not be as successful as Google.

Searchers will presumably be "developing" as well, becoming more mature themselves, and hungering to try a variety of search engines.  Developers are certainly not wasting their time; no search engine is perfect, and different approaches to search [such as] semantic searching instead of primarily keyword searching are already in development.

avant|marketer:  The notion that two-thirds of Internet users could walk away from search and be content is an eye-opener. Is this a shortcoming of the search product as we know it, or do people simply learn to navigate on their own as they gain more experience with the Internet?

Deborah Fallows:  I would put the ball back in the court of the user here.  I think as users gain more experience and fluency in their use of the Internet, they will likely integrate it into their lives in a more meaningful way.  This will make it more difficult for these users to simply walk away from it.  [Our data does suggest] that more experienced Internet users do rely on the Internet more heavily.

avant|marketer:  How meaningful is the distinction between paid and organic search to the consumer if they are happy with the results the engine provides? For example, the yellow pages is a book of paid listings and it is perceived as useful.

Deborah Fallows:  It really isn't a question of "meaningful" or "happy".  It is a question of knowing something about what you are looking at, and being able to evaluate the information you are getting.  I would say it is better than not to have some understanding and familiarity with the results you are looking at.

Here's an analogy...drivers don't need to know how a car engine works [or how a search engine works], but it is a good idea for drivers to know what the gas gauge is and how to read it [just like it is a good idea for searchers to know the difference between paid and unpaid results, and what they mean].

avant|marketer: Google seems to have placed a pretty big bet that the idea of “search”, largely defined by the paradigm of Internet search, is going to become the definitive behavior relative to all media. Phones, TV, Desktops; in each, Google sees consumption as defined by the user-directed search. Based on what you are learning in your research, might that not be a little premature given that we might not yet know how to read this “gas gauge”?

Deborah Fallows:  What we see in our research is that there is a leading edge of users out there who are currently way ahead of the rest in terms of what they do online; what they know...how sophisticated they are about taking advantage of all that the Internet has to offer.  These same users will be the ones who search on phones and such.  I don't think anyone expects that everyone will flock to these new capabilities the way the hordes flock to the opening of a hit movie, but the leading edge users will - and companies hope - these people will drive a trend others ultimately follow.  In the meantime, companies doing development should be taking their best shot at these consumers, entice them, and be ready when they arrive.




A look behind Pew's research should serve as a reminder that the Internet is still a relatively new medium, and that not everyone has caught up yet to where we are, especially if we expand our view beyond the traditionally "wired" countries.

Many of us in this profession are immersed in it every day, often living in urban environments surrounded by others immersed in the Internet everyday. This type of usage is not yet as common as our lives might suggest.  The idea that 2/3s of Pew survey respondents could walk away from search was shocking to us, and it is good news of sorts that this data is likely a lagging indicator of the market.

That said, it does raise the question of what behaviors will come to define the Internet use of the future.  Will the Internet always be such a search-heavy medium, as opposed to TiVo-ized television, in which the media appliance finds the content for you? Will the ease of search create a chronic restlessness in the consumer that keeps them from ever establishing a long-lasting relationship with any information source? Will the brands that provide search best online be able to take that functionality across other media, and become the definitive search tool for life?

Ultimately, it may be time for you to ask these questions of your audience and/or customers. Syndicated research like Pew’s may serve as the proper launch point for you to do some custom work with your own user base.  If you have 2/3 of your budget locked-up in search and 2/3 of your users really could walk away, well-timed research may prove a better ROI vehicle through savings than your spend did through revenue.